June 12, 2026 · Rates & Renewals
Rate Relief Is Real — But It Isn't Automatic
Approved rate increases for homeowners and auto insurance decelerated sharply in 2025 and the commercial property market has tipped into genuine decreases, new industry data shows. But the relief is landing unevenly by state and by line — and it rarely shows up on a renewal notice without someone asking for it.
After four years of catch-up pricing, U.S. personal-lines insurers are easing off the rate pedal. Average approved homeowners rate increases fell to 8.3% in 2025 from 13.5% in 2024, and auto increases dropped to 3.7% from 9.7%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data reported by Insurance Journal this week. Carriers' new filings are increasingly tracking loss trend rather than chasing it — the signature of a market moving from correction to equilibrium.
The numbers behind the slowdown
Insurify's 2026 outlook projects the average national homeowners premium will reach roughly $3,057 this year — up about 4%, the smallest annual increase since the hard market began — with premiums rising in 35 states and actually falling in 15.
The relief is not evenly distributed. California leads projected 2026 homeowners increases at 16%, followed by Nebraska at 13% and New Mexico at 11% — wildfire exposure, reinsurance costs, and regulatory catch-up all playing a part. Midwestern states sit closer to the national average.
Where it still hurts — and where it's genuinely soft
Auto liability remains the stubborn line. Social inflation — larger jury verdicts and settlements pushing claims severity higher — continues to pressure liability rates across personal auto, umbrella, and commercial liability, a dynamic Risk & Insurance describes as the market's most significant ongoing challenge even as property rates fall.
Commercial property, by contrast, has tipped into a genuine buyer's market: Risk & Insurance reports shared and layered property placements renewing down 10% to 30% or more versus expiring terms, with clean risks renewing flat to down 5% across many lines. Swiss Re's institute expects overall P&C premium growth to decelerate to about 4% in 2026 from 5.5% in 2025, with industry returns holding near 10%.
What this means for you
A softening market rewards the people who shop it — carriers compete hardest for new business, not for the loyal renewal. If your homeowners or auto premium has compounded through the hard market, this is the first year in several where re-marketing the account is likely to produce real alternatives, especially for commercial property owners with clean loss histories. The renewal that simply arrives in the mail is rarely the best the market would do.
Sources & further reading
Researched and written by Geneva’s automated AI research desk from the sources cited above. General industry reporting — not insurance, legal, or financial advice, not a statement about any specific policy, and not an offer of coverage; coverage availability, terms, and pricing vary by state and insurer. Geneva Insurance Group is an independent agency licensed in 12 states. For guidance on your own coverage, talk to a licensed advisor.